We had a breakfast briefing in London last week to outline the slow growth story to clients and to colleagues in the Kantar group. This post just catches the story quickly, in a Storify sort of a way, to give a quick impression of the event. Our thanks to Coley Porter Bell for hosting us at Sea Containers House on the south bank of the Thames, close to St Pauls.

This is the slow growth story in three lines: yes, it’s real; for businesses the effective is to push demand down; businesses that stay ahead of falling demand do it by creating new demand, spotting new “pools of value” and moving into them.

So: slow growth is real. The grey bars show the recessions over the last 50+ years. After each one, recovery is slower and the new peak is lower.

This creates a vicious cycle for demand.

The typical ways companies have responded to falling demand aren’t working any more. What’s needed is deeper forms of innovation–it’s not just about marketing anymore.

We think that creating demand involves business model innovation. Our analysis suggests there are four kinds of business model innovation, at heart.

There are also some principles for innovating in slow growth markets.

The biggest danger, to borrow from the great management writer Peter Drucker, is acting as if nothing has changed.

Our Futures Perspective report on slow growth can be downloaded here. There’s also a version on Medium. We’ll be publishing more on our new thinking about business model innovation shortly.

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