Andrew Curry writes:
In our recent Future Perspective Succeeding in Low Growth Markets we looked at the headwinds that could keep economic growth in the richer economies low for the foreseeable future. At the time it was a slightly controversial view – ever since Robert Gordon and Tyler Cowen started this argument in the US others have been queuing up to knock it down.
Now HSBC’s chief economist, Stephen King (yes, the other Stephen King) has stepped into the argument. In an article in today’s Guardian he says:
The new reality is, I’m afraid, a world of significantly lower growth, where the gap between our expectations and actual income is getting bigger day by day. Neither Keynesians nor austerians have an answer to this sober outlook because both sides claim their own policies will ultimately take us back to a world of rapidly advancing living standards.
Our view is that ‘the low growth economy’ is, at the least, a plausible scenario, and that, like all plausible scenarios, businesses that prepare for it will do better than those that don’t. Even if it doesn’t happen, exploring the world of low-growth will throw out new insights about consumers and markets. If it does happen, businesses that have prepared for it will gain a competitive edge.
And it turns out that looking at economies through the lens of the headwinds we explore in the report throws up some stretching questions about how we do business – and new innovation ideas – as indicated by the summary graphic of the story.
The fuller story is in Succeeding in Low Growth Markets, which you can download here.