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Holiday collection #3
Joe Ballantyne Lightning Field
This October, I spent 24 hours with Walter de Maria’s Lightning Field artwork. It’s miles from anywhere, in the high desert of New Mexico about 3 hours outside of Albuquerque: a one mile by one kilometre grid of 400 stainless steel rods, averaging 20ft in height, which attract lightning. You have to stay the night (a little cabin sleeps six) which is just as well because when you first get there, there’s not a lot going on. In the early afternoon when the sun is high, the rods are almost invisible and so spread out it seems there’s little to see or do. And then, gradually, as the light changes, you realise you’re in the grip of an experience which needs time as well as space. I highly recommend it.
Andre Furstenberg, on untranslatable words
The Oxford English Dictionary claims there are at least a quarter of a million distinct English words in use. It estimates that English probably has more words than any other comparable world language. So, it struck me that when it comes to the most personal, our closest interactions with others, English still sometimes fail us.
How many times have we experienced Mamihlapinatapei, but failed to verbalise it? Nor have we one word for that hesitating look when you both know you want to initiate something but are reluctant to take the first step. Or cafune; tenderly running our fingers through someone’s hair?
It’s good to be reminded that in our media swamped world, our languages still sometimes come up short.
Andrew Curry, Don Paterson’s Rain
Sometimes consultancy has its privileges. So it was for me this year, when, delivering a keynote to the UK Independent Publishers’ Guild, the IPG, I was also able to hear their after-dinner speaker, the Scottish poet Don Paterson. Most of it was a light affair, as custom dictates, and he started with the conceit that he had forgotten which organisation he was speaking to, reminiscing about the chequered history of the fictitious International Paintballing Group. But Paterson is one of Britain’s finest poets, and this was an audience of publishers, so we were also treated to a reading of ‘Rain‘, the title poem of his best collection. It is dark and cinematographic, as this extract conveys:
I love all films that start with rain:
rain, braiding a windowpane
or darkening a hung-out dress
or streaming down her upturned face;
His reading sent me back to the collection. As it should.
30 December 2011 at 8:41 am thenextwavefutures Leave a comment
Holiday collection #2
Andy Stubbings, The Toaster Project
I’ve been thinking a lot about technology this year, with the writing of our Technology 2020 report amongst other things, and more specifically about the amount of technology embedded in everyday objects. So I was delighted when I heard about The Toaster Project, a short description of an attempt (originally an MA project) to construct a toaster, from scratch, without recourse to industrial technologies. There seems to be a tradition of using toasters as the archetypical everyday object that appears simple but is in fact tremendously complex when unpacked and deconstructed: from Harvey Moloch’s tremendous study of the design of everyday objects Where Stuff Comes From, to the story this year of toaster patent trolling in an episode of This American Life, to the character of Arthur Dent in Douglas Adams’ Mostly Harmless, who, when stranded on a prehistoric alien planet “left to his own devices..couldn’t build a toaster” (he can make sandwiches though). The Toaster Project doesn’t disappoint, and is cutely pieced together as a kind of cento of email exchanges with professors and oil company executives, with travelogue and photos. It’s more of a study of materials by way of metallurgy than electronics or computing technology per se, but no less entertaining for that. I guarantee that you won’t look the same way at a toaster again after reading it.
Eleanor Cooksey, Turner Contemporary, Margate
I was brought up in Kent, not the wealthy commuter-belt part, but the more depressed heel of Canterbury and the Isle of Thanet. The arrival of the Turner Contemporary this year in Margate had the opportunity to be very exciting. We now expect architecture to be spectacular – new buildings should be strange, wonderful, otherworldly, possibly distracting us far too much from thinking about what they are meant to house. Turner Contemporary isn’t one of those; it is a modest affair, probably linked to its pretty modest budget. Having visited it, I was ready to head back to London singing its praises, but for a small hitch. It is a habit of mine to get a postcard wbever I visit a gallery – and the Turner Contemporary failed the ‘postcard test’. The building doesn’t lend itself to the iconic view by which it can impress itself upon our memories. Instead, we have a view of what looks like some big warehouses on the seafront. Other angles were no better. David Chipperfield (he’s the architect) – don’t forget the postcard shot!
The image of Turner Contemporary comes from ArtRabbit, the picture of the toaster from The Toaster Project. Both are used with thanks.
28 December 2011 at 8:33 am thenextwavefutures Leave a comment
Holiday collection #1
To mark the end of the year – as is now traditional on the blog – we asked people across the company to share something they’d found interesting this year. We’ll be publishing the responses on the blog between now and New Year’s Day.
Anita Beveridge, Message from an Unknown Chinese Mother
The most touching book I have read this year was Message from an Unknown Chinese Mother by the journalist and author Xinran. In it she extends her exploration into the implications of the one child policy first touched upon in her seminal work The Good Women of China (also a ‘must-read’). The tales Xinran recounts are heart wrenching and enchanting in equal measure, and remind us of the emotional implications of the Chinese social policies which are too often only viewed through an economic lens. It is a wonderful read, but have a box of tissues to hand.
Tom Morley and Ann Clurman on layaway angels
‘Layaway’ is a way in which Americans can purchase an item without paying the entire cost at once. But the item stays in the store until it’s completely paid off. We’ve noticed several articles about strangers paying off layaway bills anonymously on behalf of people who can’t afford to do this themselves. It’s a tangible example of the growing economic divide in the United States, this country; the story speaks to the fact that people recognize the divide (it’s not just the economists, demographers and market researchers) and want to help. And it’s not about approbation and applause. One of our MONITOR themes this year, “Small Is Getting Bigger” is about avoiding grand, sweeping gestures, to stay clear of the grandiose. These good samaritans already know that.
The image above comes from the First Preston HT blog, and is used with thanks.
26 December 2011 at 8:36 am thenextwavefutures Leave a comment
The taking part that counts
Alex Oliver and Lawrence Wykes write: As the wave of Olympic test events comes to a close in London, it seemed a good moment to think about the other half of the sports equation – participation by people who just get involved for fun. As it happens, we recently brought together a number of cross-sector experts from different disciplines for a sports roundtable, to try to answer one question: as a society how can we get more people physically active?
Staggeringly, almost half of us in the UK don’t participate in any form of regular exercise. Men are more active than women and participation levels vary significantly by region, often with a worrying correlation to deprivation.
All the experts who participated in the roundtable, in one way or another, had an interest in getting this missing half of the population more active.
So what was their view? Well, the point was quickly made that the missing half weren’t just missing from sport – they were missing from the room. At The Futures Company we’ve done a lot of research for sports clients over the years, and in the course of this research we’ve learned that any plan to get people more active has to be co-created with the audience it is intended to benefit.
And this brings us to the s-word. A key theme that came through in the discussions and one which is mirrored in our own research is that for some people a word like ‘sport’ can itself be a barrier to participation.
But when we talk about getting people active, we don’t just mean formalised sports, of the kind promoted by the National Governing Bodies and lined up for the Olympics. Increasing the population’s physical activity can also mean getting parents off the park bench to run around and play with the kids, or cycling to the station instead of driving. Whatever we want people to do, we need to make sure we don’t put them off before we even start with the language we use. This again means getting to know the people you’re engaging
If we want to have a long-term impact on participation we have to plan for tomorrow and act today. Our experts round the table agreed that above all sport needs to be fun, accessible and normal – something for everyone and anyone. People need to feel that they can take part regardless of what they wear, where they live, who and what size they are. So what new ways can we find to involve people in ‘sport’ in a way that works for them – in schools, in parks, in streets and at the sports events themselves?
The image at the top of this post is a still from the T-mobile ‘Life’s for Sharing’ dancing at Liverpool Street Station website, and is used with thanks.
1 September 2011 at 5:10 pm thenextwavefutures Leave a comment
Water pressures
Lindsay Kunkle writes:
A group of us from the Chapel Hill office went to a lecture at the University of North Carolina’s business school this week on the future of water. The speaker was Charles Fishman (author of The Big Thirst, as well as The Wal-Mart Effect). Mr. Fishman was quite engaging, and the clear implication of his talk was that our perceptions of water – that it is safe, free, and unlimited – are already out of date.
Some of the stories that he told about water issues, in the US and elsewhere, were alarming. A few highlights:
- Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the U.S., and the water source for Las Vegas, is now half empty; areas of the reservoir that were once 100 feet deep are now bone dry.
- 70% of the people in India’s hospitals are there because of water related problems (treatment of diarrhoea is a huge cost for the country—and could be resolved almost completely by providing the population with safe drinking water)
- Still in India, one-sixth of the population still relies on “foot carried” water—in order for a family to have water the wife and daughters transport water from a well (often not close) to the family’s home.
However, Fishman stresses there is no ‘global water crisis,’ but rather there are local and regional water problems—conserving water in North Carolina will not help India have more water (just as cleaning one’s plate every night as a child did not help feed starving children in Africa, no matter what parents said.
And despite the portents, Mr. Fishman was hopeful about the future of ‘smart water’. In the U.S., Las Vegas is the poster child as the ‘smartest water city.’ The city has enacted many laws to control water use and to increase the amount of water that can safely be recycled for continued use. For example, it is illegal to let sprinkler water hit the sidewalk; new homes aren’t permitted to have pretty green front lawns; and as a result, 94% of the city’s water can be be reused.
And there are implications for the future of how we manage water.
- As long as water is ‘free’, it decreases consumer and business willingness to invest money or time in smart water solutions. And since American consumers drink on average 4 bottles of water per a week, they are not completely unfamiliar with the idea of actually paying for water.
- There is an emotional connection to water (think a hot bath on a cold day or diving into the cool ocean as a kid) that can be promoted to drive more creative smart water solutions as well as more creative water management in general.
- Water needs to be marketed! Promoting water through marketing campaigns that educate consumers on their water sources and how water gets to their homes is a good first step in working towards solving the water problems so many face.
It happens that this is an area in which The Futures Company has already engaged with a wide range of clients, both commercial and in government. It’s clear that water needs to rise up the agenda of most businesses and organisations – wherever they are based.
The photograph of Lake Mead at the top of the post is from the Scripps Institute at UCSD, and is used here with thanks.
The new normal is still here, and here to stay
Eleanor Cooksey writes:
“I’ve found the cost of living has gone up substantially and it has had a huge impact on my life. I am not buying luxuries as often and I will change the way I deal with my finances.”
This sobering quote comes from a Scottish man we spoke to as part of our fifth in-depth review of how UK consumers are responding to the current economic situation. In our breakfast briefing held in London last week to launch this review, we highlighted four themes which describe the current environment:
- The New Normal is firmly embedded: Reflecting the broader economic uncertainty, individuals feel the outlook is gloomy: 25% feel the UK economy is going very badly these days, an increase of 10% compared to when the survey was last carried out six months ago. People are even less optimistic about their personal financial situation with almost half thinking they will be worse off over the next 12 months. The message is clear: no one expects things to go back to how they were and we are learning how to cope.
- Rising prices are hurting:Though inflation has recently dropped a fraction, our data showed levels of anxiety about rising prices similar to those seen in 2008. Many of the people we spoke to were highly sensitive to these changes, whether this was about an increase in the cost of petrol or bell peppers.
- Savvy shopping matters to consumers: 43% of consumers have had to dip into savings to make ends meet and they are trying hard to make their money going further. Deals and special offers are still very much part of this, but consumers are doing more than that: they are giving serious thought to what they really need and what they really don’t. One lady in Staines realised she didn’t have to spend £70 every six weeks at the hairdresser and could use a £3.50 home dye kit instead. However, she wasn’t going to cut back on her expensive make-up and perfume.
- It’s a constant struggle to stay on top of things: In our last survey, we identified three groups who represent the various responses to the current financial downturn, and this time round, ‘All Hands on Deck’ were the only group which had increased in size. Though people in this group feel the struggle to make ends meet most acutely, making the most of your budget is relevant to everyone, even for the relatively unaffected ‘Plain Sailing’ group. All want to feel they can loosen their belt without losing it.
I’ll finish with a quote from a young woman in Sheffield which sums up the dilemma the New Normal presents for some:
“I could lose my job tomorrow, so I should plan to protect myself against that – but then again, I could lose my job tomorrow…so why not live for the moment?”.
There are limited places available for a repeat of this breakfast briefing on 12th May. To find out more please contact Karen Kidson.
Millennials and money
Alex Oliver writes:
We’ve been out and about talking about the millennials generation and their financial attitudes and behaviours. At the Financial Services Forum event in the City of London recently I presented some of our proprietary research about the millennial cohort growing up and ‘coming of age’ with lifestyles to match. Millennials are now fluent consumers and intuitive users of technology, and are clearly adept at navigating the increasingly blended worlds real and virtual, work and play, but their self-stated lack of engagement and frequent misunderstanding of financial matters is stark. Tough economic times, alongside a general lack of interest in managing their finances means millennials need support to weather the storm.
But although this ought to be an opportunity for financial services providers, there is something of a mismatch between the brand values and service propositions which millennials look for and those which financial services providers tend to have. Millennials want to see ‘authenticity’ in brands, and they want easier access to services (for example when they’re ‘on the go’ or using dead time to catch up. There are some easier wins for financial services providers – for example, they may be able to nudge them to some good but low engagement behaviours (such as saving more for retirement) by smart service design. But there’s potentially a big win here. The provider which gets this right, at a time when many millennials are financially squeezed, could capture a cohort of customers for life.
The picture is from dcist, and it’s used with thanks.
Energy levels
Andrew Curry writes:
Sometimes you stumble on good news by accident. So it was recently when one of our analysts – while researching something else – found some excellent coverage in the trade press (which we’d missed completely) of a project we’d done late last year for Red Bull. The project was about how consumer manage their energy levels, a subject we’ve been interested in for about a decade, when we first started to thinking about the idea of ‘consumer currencies’ which went beyond money and time. The Red Bull project enabled us to take a far closer look at how consumers think about energy levels and manage them, day-to-day and even hour-to-hour. In particular, we found that consumers were very aware of energy levels at different times of the day, and the idea of ‘transformational energy’ emerged from the research – making sure that you have the right energy levels to be set up for the next part of your day.
Red Bull used this insight as part of a new creative platform, “Want to Squeeze The Day Dry?”, which launched in May. The campaign was developed both to bring former Red Bull customers back to the brand, and also to inform retailers about the value of the whole energy category. Yannis Kavounis, the Futures Company Director who led the research, observes:
The energy category has only been around since the late 90s, so it’s really amazing to see how savvy and sophisticated consumers have become with their energy needs, and how to satisfy them, in such a short period of time. Gone are the days where people talked about time management and physical kick. Today, it’s about holistic energy management with a wide range of desired energy modes; transformational energy fits really well in this, as people’s efforts focus on managing energy levels throughout the day and making the most of it.
The photograph at the top of the post is by Andrew Curry. It is published here under a Creative Commons licence.
9 September 2010 at 8:01 am thenextwavefutures Leave a comment
Google: friend or foe for news publishers?
Tom Richardson writes:
It’s hardly new news, but the Google vs. publisher showdown is no less interesting for that fact. And as The Times has become the canary in the coalmine with the fourth estate’s first mainstream paywall, it’s reaching a critical turning point.
I was recently at the Frontline Club in Paddington, listening to Peter Barron, a former journalist and now Head of Communications and PR at Google UK, defend the company against the accusation that it is, by default, the ‘foe’ of newsprint publishers. Peter was joined at the top table by Matt Kelly from Mirror Newspapers’ digital division, Wired Magazine and Press Gazette columnist Peter Kirwan, Robert Andrews from Paid Content, and Patrick Barwise from London Business School.
The journalists’ respect for Barron, one of their own until recently, prevented the discussion from turning into a ding-dong battle, but there were some interesting points of contention.
The first point that Barron took issue with was the suggestion that Google ‘steals’ content. He was emphatic that news publishers were putting their content on the web for free, and Google simply helps people to find that content. He said that Google’s technology sent 1 billion clicks to news publishers per month, while Peter Kirwan pointed out that the Guardian has budgeted for £40 million in revenue from digital this year. So, Google makes a lot of money from news publishers, but it also helps publishers themselves to make more. And given that 70-80% of the cost of running a newspaper comes from paper, printing and distribution, there seems to be a cost-cutting opportunity created by the move to online.
Barron was also keen to point out that people should not confuse Google and the internet, identifying the latter as the technology that really threatens newsprint, and that had already begun to do so before Google came on the scene in 1998.
Matt Kelly was scathing about his own industry’s failure to adapt, refusing to lay the blame at Google’s door. He argued that reach does not mean audience, and that reading does not mean engagement, so newspapers must stop the mad scramble for ‘reach’ and return focus to their readers. After all, what use is it to ‘reach’ 40 million people if you can’t make money out of them?
It seems clear that although this feels like an old story, there’s plenty of mileage in it yet, and not even the top executives know exactly where it’s heading. I think though, that there are some certainties:
- Mobile devices will never replace the pleasure of watching television and films at home;
- People like the tactile experience of a newspaper in their hands;
- People will remain attracted to quality news content from their chosen news print brands;
- Uploading photos and comments about breaking news, tweeting or writing blogs will never replace the work of quality journalists.
But, sadly, that’s not the whole story. People have to be willing to pay to ensure quality. The next challenge for the news publishing industry is: how do you convince people that quality journalism is an essential expense? Mr. Murdoch’s first paywall then looks like a brave and well-timed venture. The Times will have mopped up a lot of early adopters who are already convinced of this. If the canary keeps chirping, its rivals will face a mad scramble in a much more competitive market.
You can see the discussion in full here.
The other election debate
Emily Pitts writes:
Another Nick captured the imagination this Wednesday of a 16+ audience at Downside Fisher Youth Club in Bermondsey, where I work as a volunteer, as the Lib Dems came out on top in a mock ballot and election debate for young people. The evening event was intended to engage young people in politics. Many feel ignored by politicians and question the point of voting. Parliamentary candidates for Bermondsey and Old Southwark – Val Shawcross (Labour), Loanna Morrison (Conservative) and Nick Stanton (Leader of Southwark Council, standing in for Simon Hughes) spoke to the 50 strong audience, answering the question ‘Why should I vote?’ and taking questions.
The audience enjoyed having the opportunity to meet the candidates and question them on the matters closest to their hearts. Leon Bruff, who’s 21, said “You don’t think you’ll be able to have a proper conversation with people in politics and actually get them to listen, but tonight showed me that’s not true. It was a really great opportunity, something that doesn’t happen every day.”
Questions covered a range of issues, from crime and punishment to housing provision and funding for further education. But the issue that came through most strongly was employment and access to jobs. There were several questions about lack of jobs in the area and some sharp criticism of the lack of opportunities available for young people even after they’ve achieved qualifications and training. There were suggestions of new green technologies creating jobs under the Lib Dems, Crossrail related jobs from Labour, and tax breaks for small businesses from Conservatives. I’m not sure how satisfied the young people felt by these answers – their reality is much more immediate than suggestions of potential future jobs in industries that don’t yet exist. They did, however, feel empowered by getting their point across and ensuring that whoever ends up as the area’s MP is well aware of the priority of their new voting generation.
In a way, this was probably the point that came through most strongly – a strong desire to be heard and taken seriously rather than just lumped into a ‘tough kids on the streets’ stereotype. Nick Stanton talked about lowering the voting age to 16, which went down well, of course. David, who’s 16, said “He [Nick] was talking to us as young people and he listened to us. The voting age should definitely be lowered to 16 – we are the new generation. We should all have the opportunity to be heard.” And judging by the turnout on the night and the energetic questioning, the young people of Bermondsey do want to get involved. The question is whether the political parties will find ways to let them.
