Posts filed under ‘consumers’
A future made of screens
Alex Steer writes:
There was a lot of discussion in our London and New York offices last week about a short video called A Day Made of Glass. It’s produced by Corning, which makes specialized glass products, including mobile and tablet touchscreens, and the video explores a day in the life of a family in a not-too-distant future in which (surprise) there are screens, especially touchscreens, in just about everything.
The first thing that struck us was Corning’s imaginative approach to the dry task of selling high-tech glass. It’s a great illustration of what can happen when you apply a bit of futures thinking to your brand. It’s also smart as a piece of brand planning, focusing on the consumers at the end of the supply chain, not Corning’s B2B customers. Creatively, it’s well executed.
But it’s the futures aspect which has provoked the debate. The video is cheerfully optimistic about the screenification of the entire world, as you’d expect from a sales tool, and cheery optimism runs through the creative work too, presenting a perfect upper-middle-class family – mum, dad, kids, all so happy and healthy-looking – that feels more like a nod to the heyday of Madison Avenue than a look to the future.
Some of the futures thinking isn’t bad. Consumerism is one of the strongest forces defining technology innovation, and this trend is everywhere in A Day Made of Glass. Glassland is about user experience, good design and straightforward, seamless interaction. All the devices assume a world of rich information and always-on connectivity.
Which is what also makes this an extreme scenario.It assumes there are no limits to our attention, or our wish to interact with everything in the way we currently interact with our phones or tablets. The prevalence of touchscreens led one of our Senior Consultants to compare it to another video, for Microsoft’s Future of Work scenarios. In both, ‘the future looks very much like the waiting room at Heathrow Terminal 5’.
In information-rich markets like the US or the UK, the desire to stay updated is already clashing with the recognition that there’s too much information, and we’re looking for more efficient filters. There’s also an emerging awareness of the importance of continuous partial attention in our interaction with media, and the need for interfaces that are useful even when they don’t have our full attention (such as radio or TV).
The continuous interested multitasking imagined in Corning’s world seems, frankly, exhausting. Said one of our SVPs: ‘The woman emailing from her bathroom? I can pretty much guarantee that if you email me anything before I’ve washed my face and brushed my teeth in the morning you’re not going to get a “yes”.’
So in the end we were a bit sceptical. We also worried about the sheer energy cost of all those screens. But hats off to Corning for producing a thought-provoking piece of work that got us talking about the future of media and technology.
The World in 2020
Andrew Curry writes:
I’ve been working on a Futures Company report on The World in 2020 for the last couple of months, and since I’ve end up doing much of the work in the evening I’m delighted to say that we’ve just published the summary edition, and the full version has just gone into production. The summary edition can be downloaded from our website, although registration is required.
The World in 2020 is the first in a series of ‘Futures Perspectives’ reports which we’re publishing over the next few months.
It takes a high level view of the big drivers which are shaping the world, and looks at some of the innovation spaces which may emerge as a result. Here’s are a couple of extracts:
The financial crisis of 2008 represented an ending, but not a beginning. We are in a liminal moment, betwixt and between, when there are more questions than answers, but when, increasingly, our assumptions about how the world works are open to challenge and interrogation. … Liminal moments such as this one can last a decade or more, before opinion coalesces around a new set of operating assumptions about how the world works.
Over the next decade, we’ll see much tougher resource constraints – energy, food and water, and resources will all be under pressure – as well as the continuing long economic shift towards Asia. Issues involving technology and inequality will also be influential. It will be harder to make money in the coming decade. As a result, businesses will have to rethink their approach:
The changing economic environment creates the dilemma of new yet alternative prospects for different types of customers. The emerging middle class across much of Asia and Latin America will be very different from the debt constrained consumers of Europe and the United States. Globally, the
costs of basics such as food and energy are likely to rise over the next decade, so discretionary income will be lower than some project. In the richer countries, the experience of recession will create demands for more social behavior from businesses.Business critic Umair Haque talks of the “meaning organization” that builds “authentic prosperity.” As he writes in a blog post, “An isolated notion of ’profit’ is obsolete: it’s an arid industrial-age conception of a currency-focused construct that’s built to trivialize everything but what a firm owes its ’owners’.
After bling
Alex Oliver writes:
There are some perks in being a consultant, and being invited to speak at a conference in Paris on managing change in consumer credit and debt behaviour, as I was last week, is one of them. The conference was organised by the European Financial Management and Marketing Association, and was hosted at the elegant Paris Concorde Opera hotel. The two day conference tackled a number of difficult credit management issues, including the best approach to sustainable and responsible lending in an environment still reeling from the shock of the global economic crisis, where regulation is increasingly restrictive and consumer demand remains sluggish.
Drawing on our Global Monitor international trends data, I explored the implications of the ‘New Normal’ for European consumers whose attitudes in relation to spending appear to have shifted permanently. Aspirations have changed: the era of ‘bling’ and platinum credit cards is behind us and although consumers may still be willing to spend, they need to be able to justify doing so. They’re searching for reassurance around value and reduced risk. And regardless of pressure from the regulators, consumers themselves are scrutinising choice in a way they may not have done before and looking for new tools to give them greater levels of control.
Other speakers also explored the attitudes and behaviours of the Millennial generation and whether this target is really attractive to credit providers or too fickle and costly to be of real value. Our data suggests the challenge for financial services providers is to be authentic and transparent in their dealings with this group, offering regular communication through multiple channels and inviting, sharing and acting on honest feedback.
The potential prize, for those willing to invest in the relationship, could be a loyal base of young customers, who become brand advocates and – as illustrated a fellow speaker from FICO with reference to US trends – are also willing to prioritise repayments for those credit providers with whom they feel affinity above others – thus also reducing the credit risk for providers who get it right.
The photo is from Donald Townsend’s photostream, and is published under a Creative Commons licence. It is used here with thanks.
25 February 2011 at 9:06 am thenextwavefutures Leave a comment
Pride and confidence
Will Galgey writes:
A couple of weeks ago I spoke at the launch of the WPP BrandZ report on the Top 50 Chinese Brands, which Oliver blogged about here, and I wanted to add some thoughts to his post.
When I was last in China a few months ago, I came back from breakfast to find my hotel room being cleaned. The maid, who spoke no English, beamed a broad smile and immediately started trying to tell me something, gesticulating with her fingers to make the number ‘two’ and pointing at the television, which she had tuned to CNN. My Mandarin was no better than her English, and it was only after she left that I saw the news that China had just overtaken Japan to become the second largest economy in the world.
The story exemplifies for me the intense pride the Chinese have in their country and its achievements, which we also see in our proprietary Global MONITOR data. (How many Britons, or Italians, or Canadians, would know or care about their country’s ranking in the world economic league table?).
Many commentators conclude that this national pride will increasingly lead the Chinese to turn inwards, and favour domestic brands over their western counterparts. But this is wrong. The reality is that the Chinese are sufficiently self-confident in what it means to be Chinese, and their ability to choose selectively from other cultures, that they are actually very open to other cultural influences and don’t bristle at the idea of accepting western brands. In our Global MONITOR survey, the Chinese (along with Saudis) are the least likely to feel that ‘our society is too Americanised’.
But simply playing to notions of status and elitism through an association with the West is no longer enough for western brands looking to succeed in China. Chinese consumers are now far more savvy about price and value and are adopting a much more sophisticated attitude to brands – both foreign and domestic.
It sounds obvious, but both foreign and local brands must remember the difference between what it takes to claim the indoors and the outdoors. Haier and Lenovo do well in China because their products are kept in the home, while Nokia and Chanel do well because they’re on public display. Of course, this is a crude division – and becoming more so every day. To cross it requires a much deeper analysis of the underlying values and attitudes that are driving consumer needs and wants in China, something we are currently helping a number of clients to get to grips with.
The picture at the top of this post comes from an article on Chinese brands in Business World, and is used with thanks.
9 February 2011 at 12:58 pm thenextwavefutures Leave a comment
Millennials and money
Alex Oliver writes:
We’ve been out and about talking about the millennials generation and their financial attitudes and behaviours. At the Financial Services Forum event in the City of London recently I presented some of our proprietary research about the millennial cohort growing up and ‘coming of age’ with lifestyles to match. Millennials are now fluent consumers and intuitive users of technology, and are clearly adept at navigating the increasingly blended worlds real and virtual, work and play, but their self-stated lack of engagement and frequent misunderstanding of financial matters is stark. Tough economic times, alongside a general lack of interest in managing their finances means millennials need support to weather the storm.
But although this ought to be an opportunity for financial services providers, there is something of a mismatch between the brand values and service propositions which millennials look for and those which financial services providers tend to have. Millennials want to see ‘authenticity’ in brands, and they want easier access to services (for example when they’re ‘on the go’ or using dead time to catch up. There are some easier wins for financial services providers – for example, they may be able to nudge them to some good but low engagement behaviours (such as saving more for retirement) by smart service design. But there’s potentially a big win here. The provider which gets this right, at a time when many millennials are financially squeezed, could capture a cohort of customers for life.
The picture is from dcist, and it’s used with thanks.
China’s top brands
Oliver Wright writes:
BrandZ has recently released its flagship reports on the value of global brands, and took the moment to launch a companion report on the Top 50 most valuable Chinese brands. Given China’s buoyant economy, the results are bound to be of interest to companies looking to expand into new markets.
A glance at the top 10 brands is revealing. China Mobile is in top spot, with large banks taking many of the remaining places, rounded out by Tencent (also known as QQ; an instant messenger and mobile provider) and local language search engine Baidu – Google doesn’t figure in the top 50. Although China has the reputation, at least in the West, of being a large exporter, supplier of components, and the manufacturer of so much of our ‘stuff’, the top 10 are almost exclusively service providers with a strong national base. Of course, this is unsurprising, given the necessity of these services in a rapidly expanding economy.
Looking further down the list, there are a couple of internationally recognisable brands. Most will have heard of Tsingtao beer (35), one of a number of alcohol brands in there, but how many could claim to recognise ChangYu (22), an premium wine brand? Haier (29) and Lenovo (16) have both made an impact in the US, with the former increasing its (albeit small) international business by fostering a reputation for reliable but affordable appliances. But Midea (25) is another appliance brand with a larger brand value than Haier, built on a different strategy: its growth has largely come from focusing on China’s many tier 2 and 3 cities, where the presence of other brands is limited.
Retailers and apparel producers also feature further down the list. But like other Chinese brands seeking to establish themselves internationally, value remains the overarching brand association outside of China. Within China, of course, consumers are becoming more brand conscious; 53% shopped with a brand shortlist in 2010, compared to 41% in 2006.
However, as Kunal Sinha of Ogilvy notes, Chinese brands with an international presence are a marker of quality for consumers back home. Tom Doctoroff also makes the important point that many of these brands have yet to test their mettle in their home markets against international brands, as relatively few have had much impact yet. There’s still a lot to play for.
After the floodtide of prosperity
Andrew Curry writes:
Our chairman, J Walker Smith, was one of the experts invited to contribute by Marketing to its ‘Forward Thinking‘ essays this year. His theme: that we’ve reached the end of “the floodtide of prosperity”, which is changing consumer behaviour, and that marketing will have to follow suit.
But, as he writes in his contribution, this is about more than just the aftermath of the financial crisis:
Three major cycles are coming to a close nowadays, only one of which is economic. One is technological; one is demographic. All three are opening onto something new in the face of unprecedented resource constraints. … Based on where we see these three dynamics headed, the macro consumer trend to watch will be the emergence of lifestyles reflecting an overarching outlook of ingenuity.
And this is made more necessary by the emerging environmental constraints we face, which include a whole range of scarcities – from water to fish to timber – as well as climate change. The result is that we’re moving into a new world in which the new consumer assets are ‘vigilance’ and ‘resourcefulness’.
Consumers are being forced back onto their own skills and smartness. There are no ready answers about what to do in a world in which economic risk is top of mind, technological engagement is ubiquitous, generational priorities are upended, and resource limits necessitate temperance.
All of the ‘Forward Thinking’ essays can be found here.
24 January 2011 at 9:17 am thenextwavefutures Leave a comment
Eating my greens
Eleanor Cooksey writes:
Early January, and it’s the time of year to be making New Year’s resolutions. After over-indulging during the festive season, it makes sense to decide to eat more healthily. And I would also like to try to be more green. However, I am not sure the two are compatible.
It might seem healthier to cook my cottage pie from scratch at home, but a study shows there are lower levels of greenhouse gas emissions involved in microwaving a ready meal version. This is because mass manufacture involves much more efficient use of resources and appliances, and being provided in portion format, is less likely to lead to wasting opened ingredients (such as that bit of mince that didn’t fit in the pan) or unconsumed cooked food (someone forgot the leftovers hidden at the back of the fridge).
Fine – so it looks like it could be better to eat ready prepared food, and many manufacturers are trying very hard to make their products healthier, for example by using oils high in polyunsaturated fats as oppose to saturated fat. However, it’s not that straightforward, as these oils need more water to clean the residues off the production lines, and I am not keen on increasing the embedded water content in what I eat.
Perhaps I would be better off to keep things simple, eat less meat, and focus on my ‘five a day‘. But who would have thought that it is greener to eat a salad with tomatoes imported from Spain than local produce needing lots of energy to heat the greenhouse, or that an English apple will have been consuming energy to stay fresh in refrigeration throughout the winter? Or that going for fish is equally challenging given the amount of research needed to ensure you are eating from truly sustainable sources?
To avoid subsisting on a diet of just Brussels sprouts, turnips and parsnips I need help. How can we cut through the complexity so we can all make good (ie healthy, green and good value) choices as a consumer?
The photograph at the top of this poast is from VegBox Recipes, and is used with thanks.
Is small always beautiful?
Eleanor Cooksey writes:
I had the opportunity to attend a public sector conference last week where my colleague Alex Oliver was giving a talk about our recent research on the Big Society. The focus of the conference was to examine the strategic challenges facing those who manage our public services – people, as we kept being told, who will need to ensure they can deliver more for less – much less – in a time when budget cuts are going to be considerable.
A variety of speakers touched on different aspects to this overall challenge, but one recurrent theme which struck us was the idea that ‘small is beautiful’. Let me explain more what was meant by this – picking up on the three examples:
- Small government – This goes without saying: departmental budgets are to be slashed by 30%.
- Small and medium-sized enterprises – Francis Maude, Minister for the Cabinet Office, highlighted that 25% of government contracts will be awarded to SMEs (in terms of volume).
- Small customer base – Many services will now be commissioned and delivered at the very local level. Andrea Hill, Chief Executive of Suffolk County Council, described how, instead of tendering an unprofitable rural bus route, the service was delivered by a Demand Responsive Transport scheme, which can include people using their own cars.
If some things are getting smaller, it begs the question of what’s getting bigger. There is an obvious answer: ‘Society’.
However, there are some other ‘bigs’ implicit in the ‘smalls’ outlined above, which challenge the notion of ultra-responsive, locally-driven operations. John Collington, Head of Government Procurement at the Cabinet Office, talked about the need to consolidate the existing 16 government procurement frameworks into a smaller number. With possibly less choice at the very top and a plethora at the bottom, one of the challenges will be to ensure all decision-makers, at whatever level, feel confident they understand what their customers want and need, and are able to navigate this range of choices to deliver it effectively – for less.
The photograph at the top of this post was taken by Daniel Greene. It is from the blog Konsthuset.se, and is used with thanks,
The brand and the digital conversation
Andrew Curry writes:
I was invited to Munich earlier this week by the insurance group Allianz to talk to its Brand Council about the brand in the age of the digital conversation. The company’s just launched its ‘One’ campaign, which promotes engagement with consumers through sharing. The emphasis is on real people in authentic situations giving or sharing useful advice or a valuable experience. Digital and social media are a central part of the process.
There are two things that companies seem most concerned about when they jump into social media. The first is that they are merely opening up a new channel for criticism and complaint, and they will be overwhelmed by this. But these conversations happen online whether or not the company decided to be involved, as BP discovered, spectacularly, with the Deepwater Horizon disaster.
The second concern is that consumers are interested only in price when they engage with companies online. It’s certainly true that the internet has created a whole new category of intermediaries whose only story is about discounting, and that the insurance industry (selling low involvement, abstract, commoditisable products) is particularly vulnerable to them.
But despite the recession, our Global MONITOR research shows that people are more willing to buy branded goods provided they are persuaded that they are getting value from them. And they need to be convinced of those benefits, in authentic everyday language, without being confronted by corporate-speak. Get it right, and you create a virtuous circle, as in the diagram at the top of this post. Get it wrong, and you get punished for it.
Elsewhere in the financial sector, Nat West has attempted to regain trust with its ‘Customer Charter‘, which has provoked as much scepticism as admiration. But in the digital age, markets and brands are conversations, and conversation is missing from the Nat West model. Their campaign could have run any time in the last 30 years.
In contrast, some of the early Allianz campaign executions involve their customers talking, in branch, unscripted, about what’s important to them. There are risks here, but at least it feels like a company stepping into the 21st century.
A version of this post first appeared on the blog of the advertising and marketing portal WARC, with which The Futures Company has a strategic relationship.
12 November 2010 at 9:32 am thenextwavefutures Leave a comment
